Rob Roach, ATB Economics | June 17, 2021

For the fourth quarter in a row, more people left Alberta for other parts of Canada than arrived from elsewhere in the country.

According to the latest population data from Statistics Canada, Alberta lost 3,384 people to other provinces and territories over the first three months of 2021. The net loss since the second quarter of 2020 comes to 7,633.

People move around the country for a wide range of reasons, but Alberta tends to be a net recipient when our economy is thriving and vice versa. Alberta’s economy was the hardest hit among the provinces last year and the unemployment rate was…

New House Prices On The Rise In Alberta

The average price of newly built homes in Alberta was on a downward trend before the pandemic, but has picked up some steam in recent months.

As of February 2020 (the month before the pandemic was declared), the new home price index for Alberta was 2.6 per cent below where it was in December 2016.

The price index barely moved during the pandemic in 2020, but it did get as low as 3.3 per cent below the baseline set in December 2016.

The index ticked up slightly in each of the first four months of 2021 to reach its highest level in six years. The increase, however, was modest at just 1 per cent above where things stood at the end of 2016.

The paths…

ATB Economics | February 26, 2021

Retailers were hoping for a strong December to help make up for losses earlier in the year due to the pandemic and Alberta consumers obliged.

Average daily consumer spending* in Alberta was up by 2.5 per cent in December 2020 compared to December 2019.

The higher spending in December was not, however, enough to keep annual sales from falling below the 2019 level. Consumers in Alberta spent about 3.7 per cent less last year than in 2019.

Unadjusted consumer spending always falls in January compared…

The Top Economic Stories of 2020 Part 3 of 5

China has become, and will continue to be, a source of important economic news. From a trade war with the United States to its rapid economic recovery in the face of COVID to the signing of the The Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), China continues to make large economic waves with ripple effects felt around the world, including Alberta.

Some of us on The Owl team are long enough in the tooth to remember when the big economic player and newsmaker in Asia was Japan. China was barely on the radar.

Fast forward to today, and even though…

The Top Economic Stories of 2020 Part 2 of 5

ATB Economics

Second only to the pandemic in terms of its negative impact on the Alberta economy in 2020 is the oil price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia.

Back in January 2020 before COVID was a household word, the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) forecast for the average price of a barrel of West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude in 2020 was $US59. As of December 8, the EIA expects the 2020 average to come in just under $39. The price averaged $57 in 2019.

The demand destruction brought on by the pandemic is the main reason for the difference, but bad…

The Ripple Effects Of Lower Oil Production and Investment

Between the pandemic and oil price crash, oil producers in Alberta have been compelled to cut both capital expenditures and production. This, in turn, means fewer jobs, lower exports, reduced demand for goods and services used by the oil sector, truncated government royalties and stunted economic growth overall.

In an effort to quantify the economic impact of the cuts, Statistics Canada released a study last week entitled “The Decline in Production and Investment in Canada’s Oil and Gas Sector and its Impact on the Economy.”

The study found…